It’s Just Like That…But Different

12/18/2011
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My recent piece on short volume declining sharply on Friday’s triple witching left me with more questions than answers. The one nagging question that was left unanswered in my mind, is whether these declines are typical of option’s expiration, for SIRI. After spending many hours this weekend compiling data for the past four month’s option expiration and associated short volume, as well as triple witching days for 2011, I remain somewhat baffled.

Bear in mind as you review the data, that as of yet we do not know what short volume occurred going into each expiration, as is the case for last week. More research needs to be done. To review, here is the data from Friday. The “% of trades” column is the most interesting to me. CINN immediately stood out with ZERO shares reported as short sales, despite the low volume. ...

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16 Responses to It’s Just Like That…But Different

  1. siriuslistener on 12/18/2011 at 6:53 pm

    Brandon – as always you are tilling this field – I sense you are anguishing in this looking for something to make it all make sense. I say it is buried in the dark pool and large motivations to shape the field before the retail guy knows whats happening – positioning. So alot is at stake Liberty saying investing in SIRI – Siri looking for an acquisition. Then along comes this info on stations being reactivated in world space – maybe there is something going on that is mutually beneficial in that pile of horse dung. But somewhere in that dark maze is a deal that we aren’t supposed to figure out. Why else would the powers be sitting on this stock so hard – they sense that when it becomes known – the game is over. We will see for sure. Thanks for the hard work.

  2. POSITIVEOUTLOOK on 12/18/2011 at 7:09 pm

    So, sharks in the dark pool or dragons in the maze. Choose your poison. For some reason, these dark metaphors seem to apply. I’ve got my harpoon and sword ready in any case.

    • siriuslistener on 12/19/2011 at 9:03 am

      Where’s the Hardy boys when you need them. Possible rename for Brandon – Hmmm Harry Potter maybe. Clarification on dark pool – it is really a snake infested mangrove that the SEC is afraid of.

  3. R A F on 12/18/2011 at 8:18 pm

    Without real insight into Dark Pool activity all else is questionable. There is no real way of analyzing data, from a technical perspective, without having access to all relevant data. In this vein – relevant data is what percentage of Dark Pool volume is Naked Shorting, resulting in unknown numbers of Fails to Deliver, etc. Add it all up and you come to one conclusion: That manipulation of SIRI has been – and is – rampant and unchecked. Thanks for nothing, S.E.C. You have totally failed to uphold your mandate to properly regulate and ensure integrity to the markets.

  4. Newton on 12/18/2011 at 8:33 pm

    The stock price is being suppressed purposely -> so SIRI can be bought out as cheap as possible by Malone and Ergen. Everyone knows this. They let the stock get away from them early this year when it jumped to 2.40. They won’t that happen again. I suggest you start there.

  5. CaptainTony on 12/18/2011 at 10:34 pm

    Agree with Newton. There don’t seem to be any traditional trading dynamics on this stock anymore. Malone had a plan when he made his deal with Mel three years ago. We are just seeing it executed. Any opportunties have just been random chances that required correction…and were corrected.

  6. Brandon Matthews on 12/19/2011 at 6:35 am

    The charts certainly support your theory…especially the range bound closing price chart. Unfortunately Karmazin has not helped by keeping guidance below analysts expectations all year. Even now everyone is on the same page as us for at least 740 mn in EBITDA, and guidance remains at 715. With that not changing all year, it’s little wonder the stock is right where it was in February. He seems very proud of the money Liberty has made, but doesnt seem to grasp what long time investors are feeeling about the past 10 months of hell.

  7. close on 12/19/2011 at 7:02 am

    Congrats on your new look, Mr Brandon Matthews!

    • R A F on 12/19/2011 at 7:38 am

      Obviously a stand-in!

      • Brandon Matthews on 12/19/2011 at 7:40 am

        note the receding hairline raf…

        • siriuslistener on 12/19/2011 at 8:59 am

          and the problem is what – wait until the full retreat. Brandon – what do you think about the World Space discussion this weekend?

          • Brandon Matthews on 12/19/2011 at 9:10 am

            i didnt see any world space discussion…but i wouldnt think much of it…liberty bailed on worldspace.

            • siriuslistener on 12/19/2011 at 1:38 pm

              You are correct it was a mention of reactivation of stations – not a discussion – Thanks

  8. sirixm007 on 12/19/2011 at 9:30 am

    Dark pools; dark glasses. Come on B, you are not telling us everything. I thought it was a popup ad and completely missed it.

  9. allenvw on 12/19/2011 at 9:32 am

    BM , Did you join the CIA? You need that ear piece to look more like one. looks good

    • limit5bass on 12/19/2011 at 12:02 pm

      mr smith, ahem, i mean brandon…..almost seems like he belongs in the matrix

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