I received an email yesterday which politelty suggested I write at least one article a day specific to Sirius XM Radio. One of the advantages however to converting to a subscription based format rather than ad based model, is that I can focus on quality of content rather than quantity. There are enough Sirius XM sites out there which fill the quantity void, which publish redundant and useless information on a daily basis in a never ending quest for google ad clicks. Sirius XM perma-bulls love them as they make outlandish claims as to the exaggerated ”fair value” of Sirius XM. Others are quick to promote only the most bullish analysts and fund managers and just as quick to avoid those with a bearish outlook, for fear of alienating their fanatical audiences. If you are looking for that kind of investment advice, you will not find it on Satwavespro and should simply move on.
Just as there is useless information provided by perma-bulls, there is an equal amount of useless negative press published regularly by “perma-bears.” The naysayers will consistantly rewrite and republish the same arguments against the equity with the same goal of generating site traffic and increasing ad revenue. They focus solely on Sirius XM Radio’s debt and market cap as the basis for their bearish outlooks, rewriting the same nonsense over and over and selecting only those facts which support their argument. One such laughable indicator is the Altman-z score.
Back in October of 2009, TheStreet.com published a fear mongering article which reported that Sirius XM’s Altman-z score was -15.4 which in their view, all but guaranteed the demise of Sirius XM Radio. Of course, Sirius XM shares have dramatically increased in value since that time, and TheStreet.conm (con-em? Typo? I like it! I’ll leave it in) even took Sirius XM off their “sell block.” This past week, one writer from The Motley Fool decided to reach back into the Altman-z playbook in pointing out Sirius XM’s current Altman-z rating of – 1.3. Despite couching the article by pointing out the uselessness of the Altman-z indicator, it is enough to steer less informed, potential investors away from the equity. Likewise, if you are looking for this kind of investment advice, you will not find it on Satwavespro and should simply move on.
What I will report on is the potential of the stock at any time, based on both the fundamental and technical aspects of the market, the associated sectors of Satellite Radio, and the equity itself. For instance, there is a potential anomoly occurring on the Sirius XM Point & Figure chart that I use. While most technicians can see a clearly defined trading range between .96 to $1.06 that developed in August, I see a repeat of a pattern developing which catapulted Sirius XM shares from a low of .56 to a 1.18 high last January. … ...


9 Comments
Very interesting charts, Thank you BM. Looks like we may be leaving this trading range soon.
Brandon, Thanks for the article. With that, I’m convinced the paid subscription is worth it! I’m sold!
Thank you for that vote of confidence…I have much more to come.
Sorry to mention this if you’ve already covered it, Brandon, but I’m curious about Yahoo’s $8.33 one year target estimate…A couple of weeks ago it was something like $9.32…
Are they just continuing to make a typo or are they just making an optimistic forecast?
Thanks!
A) I don’t work for yahoo.
B) The idea of 8-10 dollars a share is ridiculous
Unless theres a buyout and a bidding war starts like HP VS Dell…. JMHO. Apple VS Liberty or Google VS Liberty? …. Either candidate will give Liberty a run for its money, maybe not 8-10 a share but 4-5
Thanks guys, I was embarrassed to even mention it, but since they’ve left the price up for a few weeks I HAD to ask!
doctorex speaks:
run the SIRI numbers with 40 million subs, arpu 11, costs unchanged (reasonable–what would the new costs be?), 4 billion common shares, and p.e. of 30. s.p. should calculate greater than 20 dollars per share.
report back to doctorex.
[...] XM: The Bull & The Bear September 8, 2010 By Brandon Matthews TweetLast week, I alerted readers to what I termed a trading anomaly in shares of Sirius XM Radio. Not only has the anomaly confirmed, the charts have become even more [...]